How Civil War has changed Ethiopia for ever
In his 2019 Nobel Peace acceptance speech, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated ‘war is the epitome of hell for all involved.’
During Prime Minister Abiy acceptance speech ‘forging a durable peace in the horn of Africa’, Abiy was recognised not only to bring peace deal with Eritrea. But also mediated with Eritrea and Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia, Somalia and Kenya and held peace talks to diverse factions in South Sudan to give peace a chance.
Domestically, Prime Minister Abiy also pushed for reforms. He released thousands of political reforms, appointed Ethiopia’s first female president, filled half of his cabinet with women and nominated a once jailed opposition leader as the new chairwoman of the electoral authority.
Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa. Despite progress in eliminating extreme poverty, Ethiopia has the lowest level of income inequality in Africa and one of the lowest in the world. For a stable democracy to flourish, there must be accompanied by indicators of stability and peace, human rights, rule of law and sustainable development. As a result, Ethiopia remains one of the poorest country in the world.
Prime Minister that is bringing war to his country
Prime Minister Abiy resolution to bring all Ethiopians together through increased centralisation is tearing the country apart. Today, Ethiopia is in crisis and Ethiopians on the run describe ethnic slaughter. Witnesses and relatives of victims who were in Mai Kadra on November 9 retorted the ‘bloodletting went on unbated nearly 24 hours.’
Abiy attempt to re-centralise all state power in Addis Ababa and end the multi- ethnic federation established in the 1995 constitution. This constitution contained the principles of regionalism and ethnic autonomy, providing powers to regional states, several coalition of smaller ethnic groups.
The aim to bring the country together in the interest of ‘national unity,’ shifted the change and led the country to civil war. An armed conflict between the federal military and a regional government destroyed people’s lives. The Horn of Africa is now at centre of instability. One million people have been displaced, across the region and nearly 50,000 thousand have fled to neighbouring Sudan.
But in his inaugural address, Abiy promised to improve conditions in the whole country, including fighting corruption, growing economy and reform democratic process and bring peace, prosperity and stability to the region.
Abiy said it would allow some degree of privatisation of some stated owned industries to encourage domestic and foreign investments to steer economic growth. These measures unveiled by Abiy government surprised Ethiopians and international community alike.
However, Abiy declared war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front(TPLF), the regional government of northern Tigray region escalating conflict for the whole region. Since Abiy alleged an attack by forces loyal to the TPLF on the federal army base in Tigray in November 4 was the reason behind military conflict. It turned out to create instability in the Horn of Africa as that attack does not appear to be the cause, but growing tensions in Tigray and across the country.
Since Abiy took office, tensions have been escalating between his government and the TPLF due to their differing view about the way the state power in Ethiopia should be structured. Ethiopia’s army has used bases in Amhara region to attack sites in Tigray in an effort to Abiy to campaign for increased centralisation. But not only TPLF, but also majority of population want to preserve Ethiopia’s multi-ethnic federalism.
Internal conflict and the fall of monarchy
Historically, Ethiopia was formed by emperor and dictators, refusing to accept the multi-ethnic diversity of the population. For example, in December 1960 while the emperor was abroad, members of security and military forces, attempted coup d’état.
The emperor then ignored the coup’s significance embedded in country’s social and economic problems. Haile Selasie fail to implement significant land reform and the monarch gradually lost his credibility, especially as the conflict with Eritrea and Somalia escalated.
Under the motto ‘Land to the Tiller’ the students encompassed to limit properties size and rights and attempted to tackle debate on the issue of ethnicity, unlike Haile Selasie envisioned. The Derg then endeavoured to dismantle the monarchy institutions.
The Derg came to empower ideology for competing Marxist parties, which arose from students movement, including the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party(EPRP), that entrusted civilian fashion, undertook urban guerrilla war against the military rulers. Attacks espoused EPRP against Derg members and their supporters, known as the White Terror, as countered by Mengistu’s Red terror.
In 1988 the EPLF endeavoured to coordinate attacks with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front(TPLF), which had been fighting for autonomy of Tigray and recognised the Ethiopia multi ethnicity. The TPLF espoused the Amhara Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front(EPRDF).Moreover, in southern Ethiopia, the Oromo Liberation Front(OLF), had become a force to be reckoned.
After long years of internal conflicts, EPRDF, took power and envisioned multi ethnicity in Ethiopia. It would be voluntary federation of its people, not engaged by force or centralisation. Rather by will and ethnic diversity that would foster recognition for long lasting peace and prosperity.
EPRDF remained in power amidst controversy. The economy performed reasonably well under EPRDF, but human rights worsened by contrast. For example, due to protests that occurred in 2016, in Oromia and Amhara regions, in the Southern Nations. Security forces often acted aggressively to protests and demonstrations, killing and wounding some of the protesters.
In December 2019, Abiy has disbanded EPRDF to form new party of Prosperity Party(PP), but TPLF and the EPRDF rejected to join the new party branding it as ‘illegal, unitarist and personalistic dictatorship.’
Attempts to unify will prove costly
Abiy attempt to unify the country is bearing great ramifications. With around 80 ethnic groups across the country, the long historical internal conflict espoused in Tigray paved the way to disunity and separation. Yet he rejected African Union efforts to end conflict in Ethiopia.
Abiy expressed the federal government’s mandated responsibility to enforce rule of law in the region and across the country. His political slogan is ‘medemer’ or ‘coming together,’ by ‘using the best of our past to build a new society and a new civic culture that thrives on tolerance, understanding and civility.’
The TPLF saw the Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki as Abiy was ‘serving as a vehicle for Isaias desire’s to extract a pound of flesh for perceived wrongs’ since TPLF has accused Eritrea of joining forces with Ethiopia in the conflict zone.
Abiy government postponed elections that were due on August 2020, but TPLF went ahead with their regional elections escalating tensions, as both parties blaming each party of ignoring the constitution.
In the Pedagogy of the Oppressed, Paulo Freire said; ‘The oppressed suffer from the duality which has established itself in their innermost being. They discover that without freedom they cannot exist authentically.’ Abiy attempt to centralise and gain control will backfire in the long term. It would be unlikely to have peace and stability for the whole region as there would be no clear win win for the whole involved political actors.
The TPLF leaders would employ urban guerrilla war and there will be other faction or militants that would be formed fighting against Abiy’s security and military forces. Ethiopia would be heading to abyss and reign of terror. Abiy as counter measure offers rewards for the leaders.
Further, Paulo Freire retorted: ‘violence is initiated by those who oppress, who exploit, who fail to recognize others as persons- not by those who are oppressed, exploited, and unrecognized.’
Finally, the past, present and future must reflect Ethiopia where all ethnic can live peaceful and with prosperity. To achieve this, it is important vehicle is communication and stability, it must comprise top priority. Human rights must be respected and civilians protected in the conflict zone, so sustainable development achieved for everyone betterment.
